Informed Pessimism is the point in your business that follows Uninformed Optimism. This is when you’re not as excited as you once were. Coffee is helpful to get you started on your day.  You are worrying at times. You aren’t depressed or really scared – but you’re somewhere in between scared and excited.  You’re just a little bit pessimistic now.

The great thing with this stage is that it prevents you from making careless mistakes from overly optimistic thinking. You’ve rounded the corner and have uttered the words, “Oh shit!” And unlike the first stage of Uniformed Optimism, you don’t want to be talking to the media.

When you’re at this stage and nervousness sets in, you want to start doing some planning!  Some budgeting, too. When you’re nervous, you’ll make better and tougher hiring decisions. You’re going to be a lot more critical and discerning when you’re interviewing an employee and making sure that these people have really done what they say they’re doing and not just learned it in a textbook.

When you’re at Informed Pessimism you should be doing things like:

• Planning the next phase of your growth
• Strategic planning on how to make your future unroll
• Budgeting
• Hiring – you’ll be more cautious and interview better
  
• Purchasing things like advertising – you’ll be careful with where you spend your money and how much you spend and you won’t over-buy advertising based on potentially exuberant sales forecasts.

When you’re at Informed Pessimism, there are also some things you should avoid doing:

• Don’t talk to the media or do speaking events.
• Don’t work in roles where being excited would help you get a better result – wait until things turn around emotionally for you.
• Remember these stages are cyclical, and soon you’ll be on to yet another stage.

For more information on this topic, check out: The Emotional Roller Coaster of Entrepreneurs.

The reason everyone got so caught up in the mania of the 1990s dotcom bubble was that we got carried away with the dreams and energy of all those entrepreneurs and start-ups. Passion can be contagious.

In late 2008, I met with one of my old employees who now lives in Boulder, Colorado.  His brother was the founder and chairman of PayPal.  Twelve years before this meeting, I got a phone call from them when they were raising money for their first company, Zip2. They also had the domain name www.x.com – think about how early they were into the Internet game!When Kimbal Musk, brother of Tesla Motors Founder Elon Musk, told me about what they were building, he was gushing with optimism, and said a few times on the call, “we don’t even know what we’re doing yet, but we’ll figure it out as we go.”

In early 2009, I shared the stage at a talk with Morten Lund, who was the initial investor and co-founder of Skype.  He’d recently gone personally bankrupt and lost $40 million of his own cash but said, “I was mad at myself for a few minutes but then realized I own parts of eighty other companies already so I know I’ll make it all back.  I don’t know how yet, but I know I will.” Those are the kinds of Uniformed Optimistic comments entrepreneurs need to be making to rally their teams through the tough times and craziness of growth.

When Jeff Bezos was launching Amazon in the mid-90s, he used to jump up and down on stage because he was so excited and also in roughly a billion dollars of debt. This stage can also be dangerous. Spending money is a bad thing to be doing during Uninformed Optimism.  It’s why so many companies blew up in the dotcom era after spending millions on Superbowl TV ads.

When you spend all this money during the optimistic yet uninformed stages, at some point you’re going to cross the curve and then you’re going to find out the real picture. When you have those feelings of manic energy, you don’t want to be doing business planning, you don’t want to be working on your budget, you don’t want to be making buying decisions, you don’t want to be making hiring decisions, right?  You don’t want to be doing your accounting, or your bookkeeping. You don’t want to be doing anything that requires you to be thinking, logical, planning, or doing any decision making.  You just can’t think straight and calm enough for that!

The stuff that you want to be doing is standing in front of groups of people recruiting, looking for new employees, telling your story, doing your guerrilla marketing, going to networking events, talking to the media. Leverage your energy in a good way by being the outward face of the company so people feel your energy and buzz.

And remember that when you’re at that Uninformed Optimism stage, do anything that’s outward facing; talking about your company, selling the story, raising money, all that is stuff to do at Uninformed Optimism.  And don’t make buying, hiring, planning, or budgeting decisions.  Harness your excitement and make people flock to you and your company.

pic: FAILblog

For more information on this topic, check out: The Emotional Roller Coaster of Entrepreneurs.

This is a scary stage in your company that comes after Informed Pessimism, and can feel like you’re standing on the edge of a building needing to jump.  It will feel like all the odds are stacked against you and that everything is going wrong.  It will be hard to get out of bed in the morning.  Sleeping at night will be close to impossible due to worries and fear.  You’ll feel like you’re paralyzed and can do little more than perhaps clean your filing cabinet drawers successfully.

You definitely do NOT want to be talking to the media, potential employees or having team meetings when you’re feeling like this.

When you start feeling yourself sliding into this Crisis of Meaning stage, you really do have to reach out for help.   Don’t wait until you’re out on a ledge to call from your cell phone and say, “Hi, I’m getting ready to jump.  Can you help me?”  They won’t get to you in time!

We all need to really understand the feelings that we’re having as we move down the roller coaster. For women entrepreneurs, this can be a little easier since they know how to tap into that emotional intelligence and intuition from years of practice, and frankly, it’s more socially acceptable for them to do this. They’re also more likely to talk to others about their feelings, whereas we guys tend to think through stuff silently from our little caves. The bottom line? We all need to listen to our bodies and brains more because they actually send out these chemical responses within our body for a reason.

That anxious feeling in your gut is a chemical reaction that your brain is triggering. Realize that your body is saying, “Slow down.” This is the time to call on your friends, business advisers, banker, accountant, and call on people you went to school with –anyone who can lend an ear—and ask them for guidance. Call on organizations likeEO or YPO, and say, “I’m feeling stressed, worried and nervous. I’m not sure what to do or where to turn next. Help!”

And don’t feel ashamed of it because every single business owner goes through this stuff.

When you’re at this stage you should do things like:

·Clean your filing cabinet drawers – seriously.  Doing a few little things can often perk people up.

·Reach out to your support groups like friends, family, your church, groups like the Entrepreneurs’ Organization or similar ones and ask them for help, advice or to just lend an ear.

·Try to set your TOP 5 daily and only work on the most important items each day.

·Write lists – lists about your strengths, lists about what you love – make lists that when you re-read them will help re-build your  confidence.

·Go to the movies. Just a complete distraction.  Two hours of escapism.

·Read an inspirational (NOT an instructional) book.

You should avoid doing things like:

·Don’t talk to people that are depressed or negative.

·Don’t turn to vices: porn, liquor and drugs will destroy you.

·Don’t think that you can “handle it” on your own.  You can’t.

Make sure you have the mental capacity, supportive people, time and resources to get you through rough patches.

And remember:  THIS TOO SHALL PASS.

For more information on this topic, check out: The Emotional Roller Coaster of Entrepreneurs.

OK – I know there were 600 entrepreneurs in the room, but thousands of you weren’t able to make it.  So here is the talk I did on the main stage at EO Alchemy…  A shorter version of my full TED Talk which you can watch here…

And for more information on this topic, check out: The Emotional Roller Coaster of Entrepreneurs.

Richard Branson, Bill Gates, and every entrepreneur I’ve ever met has ridden the roller coaster of running a business.

The key to riding it out is that you’ve really got two choices: You can hold on and scream, or you can wave your hands in the air and have fun. Either way, you’re going to ride it.

I didn’t come up with the idea of the Transition Curve but what I figured out what entrepreneurs should or shouldn’t do when they are at each stage.  It’s one thing to identify the feelings at each stage, and another thing entirely to know what to do when you’re on the ride itself.

WARNING: DO NOT THINK THESE WON’T HAPPEN TO YOU. IF YOU’RE HUMAN THEY WILL!!

Stage 1: Uninformed Optimism

Uninformed Optimism is the stage on a real roller coaster just when you’re getting to the top. You have feelings of adrenaline pumping through your veins, excitement, nervous energy and many other feelings.

In the world of running your own business, when you get to this stage, you’re excited, filled with energy, passion and it’s fun.  No coffee is needed – you’re ON FIRE. You don’t really know what’s coming next, but you’re excited about the future regardless.

However, the excitement is also built on the unknown. You just think you’re invincible at this stage.

This optimism should not be discouraged but entrepreneurs need to recognize that’s what they’re feeling, and should harness it and use it to be successful. If you’re being coached or mentored by someone at this stage, ensure they don’t contribute to your already unrealistic expectations.  Don’t let them oversell or overexcite you.  Just harness the energy you already have.

Also, recognize that this enthusiasm and optimism won’t last.  In the near future, it will change and you will become increasingly disappointed, discouraged, and pessimistic. That’s normal, but also temporary.

Stage 2: Informed Pessimism
As you ride over the top of the roller coaster curve, you’ve now got a little bit more information and you have feelings of fear, nervousness, and frustration. You might even want to get off the ride.  You’re thinking, “I’m not really sure what’s coming yet, but I’m getting a little nervous in my gut about it!”

You’ll begin to become a little bit more pessimistic on your whole business.  You’ll focus a bit more on the shortcomings.  Your glass starts looking half empty instead of the half full.

Stage 3: Crisis of Meaning

Then you hit a stage called ‘Crisis of Meaning.‘ This is when you’re really scared. You’re in despair. This is like you’re standing on the edge of a cliff ready to jump. Your thoughts might be something like, “Today the coaster’s going off the bottom of the track for the very first time. I’m going to die!”  You feel helpless, terrified and frozen.

Stage 4: Crash & Burn (optional)

If you don’t pull through the bottom of the curve and round the corner, then you will Crash & Burn. Crash & Burn is basically when you go bankrupt, are forced to sell or whatever other horrible catastrophe befalls your business.

Sometimes it takes a massive amount of effort, tears and tenacity to pull through this stage. If you’re working closely with a good coach they should help you identify in advance all of the support groups or activities; which you can use to reduce stress and turn around these situations.

Often this is a stage where franchisees do much better than solo companies. Many franchisors are good at helping franchisees avoid problems at this stage because they have seen it so many times already with other franchisees. 85% of all solo businesses fail within the first year.  And something like 85% of the surviving 15% fail in the next four years. The odds aren’t good that you’re going to get through this whole curve.

The people that do actually get through it are the ones that recognize they are starting to have those feelings and quickly turn for support from whomever can help. You just have to ride it out, and knowing that you’re going to get through the other side is important.

Stage 5: Hopeful Realism/Informed Optimism

At the stage called Informed Optimism, you’re calm and informed.  You might even say you are cautiously optimistic.

For more information on this topic, check out: The Emotional Roller Coaster of Entrepreneurs.

This is the first article of mine to be published on the American Express Open Forum…

Hope you enjoy it…

I’d love your comments on their site – and suggestions for future articles you want from me there too.

May 18, 2010 -

I always suggest the CEO’s that I coach to read this article.

This article is about the emotional intricacies of being a CEO or entrepreneur and the emotional roller coaster you’ll ride, or are already riding.  Marc Andreesen, co-founder of Netscape, once wrote:……

I’m not sure why it’s so common, but entrepreneurs tend to overwhelm themselves with guilt for not working around the clock. Often our non-business owner friends wonder why we work so hard, or why we can’t ever ‘disconnect.’

Start building a network of fellow entrepreneurs that understand your passion and don’t make you feel guilty about always chasing it.

And stop feeling guilty about unplugging and taking time off at the random times you need it too.  Think of it like plugging in your iPhone.  You don’t feel guilty about that.

For more information on this topic, check out: The Emotional Roller Coaster of Entrepreneurs.

On April 8th – I woke up at 4am for what was set to be a busy week but one that felt doable.  I had no idea how hard the travel would be.

I was set to speak in:

• Edmonton Apr 8
• Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain Apr 10
• Dubai, UAE on April 14th
• Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on April 15th
• I’d them fly home on the 16th – have a couple days rest and fly out to Montreal on the 19th for another talk on the 20th.  Tight ya, but do able…

You can’t make this shit up…

Flight to Edmonton went fine.  My talk in Edmonton went great.  My flight to Calgary from Edmonton went fine.  And the lounge in Calgary was empty and I waited 2 hours for my Calgary to Frankfurt flight which was to leave at 4pm.

I boarded the plane at 3:30. At 3:35 it started snowing. At 7:30pm we were still on the tarmac and they canceled our flight as the crew would now have been on too long.  Re-scheduled for 1am.  So the next five hours were mixed with me spending time on cell phones to Air Canada trying to re-book my connecting flight from Frankfurt to Bahrain – after 28 min on hold I hung up by accident, then calling a 2nd time I had to phone while sitting on the floor to keep my phone plugged in as the battery was down to 3% – amazingly they said they’d make it happen.  OK. Now for food.  Everything was closed.  The Calgary airport was under lockdown due to a 2 hour power outage from the storm. And the lounge was also closed.  At midnight I found a little shop that had left their fridge unlocked.  So like Jean Valjean from Les Miserable I took a bottle of water and a handful of crackers from the bar area – and I left a $5 bill in the fridge so as to not get called a thief   We boarded our plane at 1am – and that flight was delayed until 4:20am due to the ice buildup on the plane.  The crew gave it a 4:30am cut off and said if it was’t ready they’d be cancelling this one too – we finally left Calgary 12.5 hours after our scheduled start – luckily I was in Business Class – unluckily I’d already missed my new re-booked connections in Frankfurt so I was showing up there with no booked flight to Bahrain.

On the whole flight I knew I needed to have a few people ready to help me on arrival in Europe, so while all the other passengers complained and ranted, I became the best friends of three flight attendants.  I told them how much I needed a connecting flight to appear – and they got on Telex to the airport while we were in flight and made it happen for me.  I was met at the gate by the Concierge for Air Canada Super Elite passengers (I’m only Elite which is still pretty high up) – Air Canada had purchased a Business Class ticket for me on Emerites Airlines – no questions asked – and they wisked me past hundreds of lined up people at Security where I just made my flight to Dubai.

On landing in Dubai I raced to get the connecting Bahrain flight – and dripping with sweat I boarded as the gates closed.  I was wearing a Blazer at every interaction with airline people to try to look professional – even though I’d been traveling for 28 hours at this point – and awake for about 40.

My flight to Bahrain went perfectly until just as we were getting ready to land a DHL plane crash landed on the only runway – causing our flight to be diverted to Dumman, Saudi Arabia for 3 hours.  In all I made it to Bahrain in time to do my talk – however I arrived 16 hours later than planned.

And amazingly my trip home was almost as crazy.

Upon arriving in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on the 15th, five minutes before my talk started I was told that a Volcano in Iceland was shutting down Heathrow where my flights were connecting to.  I had a two flights connecting in Heathrow that would have had me in Vancouver 16 hours later.  So the saga continues…  I’m back on the phone with Air Canada from a wireless hotel lobby phone – which dies just as they are ticketing my new connecting flights via Frankfurt.  So I borrow phone number two, and call back.  They’ve booked me on Luftansa an Air Canada partner via Frankfurt and my trip will now be 24 hours later yet still 16 hours travel – feels OK – so I fly off to Riyadh to wait in a pre-war decorated, airport hotel, with 2 hour wireless cards that fail every 7-8 minutes.

I wake in the middle of the night thinking about the Volcanic Ash cloud and wondering if Frankfurt would be impacted – so at 4am I’m back online and sure enough German airports are beginning to close.  I toss and turn all night and at 10am am frantically trying to get ahold of Air Canada or Luftansa with no luck due to time zones, and the fact that Friday in Saudi is a day when virtually no offices are open.  So at 11:00am I decide to pack up from the hotel, head to the airport and take matters into my own hands.  I’m determined to find a way home – and in my mind I already know that I won’t be flying via Europe – it’ll be via Cairo or Asia…

After getting lost in the Bowels of Riyadh airport at ‘airline offices’ which turn out to be where the baggage is controlled from it dawns on me – maybe there is a travel agent here.  And sure enough – 20 minutes walk through 3 terminals I find one.  Bear in mind I’m the only person not wearing the traditional Saudi Dress – and when everyone is walking towards the mosque to pray at noon I’m walking against the flow…

I did it though – I found a place – while booking my ticket the man looked up and said “what is your religion” I replied “catholic” – and he smiled and whispered – oh – do you like Johnny Walker Black Label – umm ya – connnection made – they ‘can’t drink’ in Saudi but most do privately   I paid $3,700 for a one-way, Business class ticket home to Vancouver.  Total flight time 26 hours, total time including connections would be 33.5 hours – Riyadh-Bahrain-Manila-Vancouver – but I’d get home.

And get home I did.  30 hours later than planned – but days ahead if I’d gone to Europe…  11 flights in 8 days.

And yesterday – to my surprise & joy – Air Canada blew me away and credited my $4,200 for the tickets I didn’t use coming home   So I actually covered my hotel costs, wireless cards, and some of the crazy data roaming I’m sure to get creamed with…

Lessons:

1. Carry a kit with Deoderant, Tooth Brush, Hair Brush etc.
2. Carry a change of clothes to wear on flights
3. Change back into Dress Shirt & Blazer at all times
4. Have a Travel Agent back home who can look into options while I’m on flights
5. Constantly be re-charging laptop & cell phones
6. Don’t wait for the airlines to re-book you – re-book yourself
7. Go to the Business Lounges to ask for help
8. A $28, 1 hour massage in Manila airport cured almost everything
9. Sleep as much as you can on flights so I’m thinking sharp when the plane arrives
10. Be the first off the plane and right away ask for the concierge

This Baja Peninsula photo is of Yanik Silver and members of Maverick Business Adventures – an organization I’m close with that takes driven entrepreneurs on trips so they can play really, really hard.

Recently, a would-be entrepreneur told me he was working constantly and struggled to read books for fun. I threw down the gauntlet and told him he’d never be a successful entrepreneur until he figured out how to get a life.  I told him to read the book Endurance the true-life account of Ernest Shackleton’s fateful voyage to the Antarctic.  And I told him not to contact me until he’d finished it.  The great thing is, I know he’ll read it this week, and I know he’ll be successful in finding balance in his life.

I’m not an expert in work/life balance, but I’ve crashed twice, and hard.  Harder than I’d wish anyone else to so I try to help as best I can.

We have all heard the saying ‘work hard play hard’, but rarely do most entrepreneurs live it. Nowadays, people do a lot of hard work, but when it comes time to fulfill the other end of the obligation, we give up, bringing our laptops, cell phones, and other ‘work’ items into our ‘play time.’ And from what I recall as a kid, playing hard didn’t include toting along our homework or smart phone. We just played–played until we dropped from laughing so hard.  Played until we dropped from exhaustion and slept like babies. It’s time to return to that kind of play, not just for your individual sanity, but for the sake of those you care for.

“Mens sana in corpore sano” is Latin for “a healthy mind in a healthy body”

For more information on this topic, check out: The Emotional Roller Coaster of Entrepreneurs.

This is a lesson I learned the hard way at only 8 years old.

By 8 I’d already become a certified card addict and had gotten pretty cocky with my cribbage skills.

One day at our cottage a friend of my fathers was talking about cribbage.  And I proudly said ‘I can beat you.’  To which he replied, ‘don’t be so sure, and don’t bet unless you can afford to lose’.  I said fine I’ll bet you $7.00.

I’m not sure where $7.00 came from but in 1974 that was a LOT of money especially for an 8 year old.

I didn’t have that much money so I said if I lost he could have my new bike.  I knew I wouldn’t lose.  He agreed to put up $7.00.

Ummm, I lost.

And my bike disappeared into the trunk of his car.  The next day he drove away with it.

I was shocked and in tears.  For three days I never saw my bike.

My father then phoned his friend and negotiated a trade.  I’d do jobs around our cottage area to earn $7.00 if he’d sell me my bike back.

See the receipt attached…

Note: It’s hard to see – but I love that he even got creative and made it Invoice # 69

Quite the character.  And quite the lesson.  To this day.  I ONLY risk what I can afford to lose.  Sometimes the risk is worth it.

For more information on this topic, check out: The Emotional Roller Coaster of Entrepreneurs.